Every promise, with its number. Or with the hole where the number should be.
Ledger A on the front page is not typed in; it is added up from this table. A commitment cannot carry a cost sentence without a line here, and a line that has no number yet says so instead of hiding inside a rounded allocation. Dates assume the 2029 election and a first Budget in May 2030. No party in Parliament publishes this. We think it is the only honest way to be judged, and it is not finished: nothing here yet meets our own definition of costed.
$1,100ma year at full rollout, Ledger A, inside the $2.4bn operating allowance
$2.7bnCrown capital once: the infrastructure bank buffer and three suburbs
7 + 8gaps with no number, plus open items inside entries that have one
40commitments: 0 costed, 18 estimates, 5 benchmarked, 10 with no new cost
Costed
quantity × a unit cost from a published contract, tender or price
Estimate
our allocation, or quantity × a unit cost we have assumed
Benchmark
scaled from a comparable published contract or institution
Gap
a cost exists and we do not have the number yet
No new cost
regulatory, or already funded in current Budgets
Ledger A, built from the register
11 lines. $1,100m a year.
$ million a year at full rollout, 2026 prices, rolled out 25/50/75/100% over four Budgets. Each line is the sum of the commitments beneath it; a line with a gap is understated, and says so.
Health: seven-day access and keeping doctors$450m + 1 gap
These are real costs with no number attached. Each says what the unit is and what has to happen before it can be sized. Until it is, the commitment stands and the ledger is understated by that amount.
Not sized. A community battery needs a stated mechanism, a tariff credit on the renter’s own bill, for the saving to reach renters; we have not designed that yet.
Depends onPlug-in solar is illegal today. If legalisation slips, renters get insulation and hot-water timers through the same facility instead.
Every new member is eligible for the Government contribution of up to $260 a year, so the cost is $260 times the number of working adults not now contributing, a number we have not yet pinned down. Not in any ledger line; this is the largest open gap.
The scorecard’s 1.5% productivity target is a target, not an estimate of what the six moves deliver. This entry is the acknowledged hole between removing constraints and growth actually arriving.
Depends onCompulsory KiwiSaver and the tax switch, which move the capital first
The plan is $12bn over four years. Budgets 2025 and 2026 have funded $5.8bn of new investment so far, subject to business cases. The remaining roughly $6bn is an intention that later Budgets must fund; it is not costless and it is not in Ledger A.
What it costs each year, and what happens when the receipts disappoint.
$ million in 2026 prices, computed from the register, the costing model and the staging rule. Operating spend rolls out 25/50/75/100% over four Budgets. Capital is cash once; financing is the Crown bond cost on it. The tax columns run the rule on the Tax Working Group’s revenue path as a share of GDP, seven years old and indicative. Every assumption is listed under the table.
Base case: the Working Group’s path
Year
Ledger A
Capital
Financing
CGT receipts
Cuts in force
New step
Account
To debt
Crown carries
2030
275
1,267
57
–
–
–
–
–
–
2031
550
1,285
115
474
–
–
–
474
–
2032
825
54
117
1,451
–
–
–
1,451
–
2033
1,100
47
119
1,974
867
867
867
241
–
2034
1,100
29
121
3,020
1,170
286
1,170
1,547
–
2035
1,100
–
121
3,594
1,934
740
1,934
897
–
2036
1,100
–
121
4,189
2,576
604
2,576
970
–
2037
1,100
–
121
4,807
3,241
613
3,241
902
–
2038
1,100
–
121
5,448
3,777
471
3,777
1,135
–
2039
1,100
–
121
6,113
4,333
481
4,333
1,223
–
Decade
9,350
2,682
1,133
31,071
17,898
4,062
4,333
8,840
–
What the base case shows
The first cut is in 2033, after two certified years. The company cut is fully funded by 2036. Because each step is sized to a trailing average, cuts lag receipts: about 58% of the decade’s receipts come back as cuts by 2039, $8.8bn goes to debt, and the stabilisation account ends the decade at $4.3bn. In the long run about nine dollars in ten come back. That lag is the price of never cutting ahead of the money.
Two downside cases
Receipts halve for two years (2036 and 2037). The account covers the whole shortfall; no cut is reversed, indexation is not paused, and the Crown carries $0m. Receipts fall 60% for three years (2036–2038). The account empties in the third year, indexation pauses for 1 year, and the Crown carries $173m before receipts recover; the company rate is not reversed in either case.
Downside tables, contingent liabilities and assumptions the working
Downside: receipts halve in 2036 and 2037
Year
Ledger A
Capital
Financing
CGT receipts
Cuts in force
New step
Account
To debt
Crown carries
2030
275
1,267
57
–
–
–
–
–
–
2031
550
1,285
115
474
–
–
–
474
–
2032
825
54
117
1,451
–
–
–
1,451
–
2033
1,100
47
119
1,974
867
867
867
241
–
2034
1,100
29
121
3,020
1,170
286
1,170
1,547
–
2035
1,100
–
121
3,594
1,934
740
1,934
897
–
2036
1,100
–
121
2,095
2,576
604
1,452
–
–
2037
1,100
–
121
2,404
2,628
–
1,228
–
–
2038
1,100
–
121
5,448
2,680
–
2,680
1,315
–
2039
1,100
–
121
6,113
2,984
250
2,984
2,825
–
Decade
9,350
2,682
1,133
26,573
14,838
2,747
2,984
8,750
–
Harsh: receipts down 60% in 2036–2038
Year
Ledger A
Capital
Financing
CGT receipts
Cuts in force
New step
Account
To debt
Crown carries
2030
275
1,267
57
–
–
–
–
–
–
2031
550
1,285
115
474
–
–
–
474
–
2032
825
54
117
1,451
–
–
–
1,451
–
2033
1,100
47
119
1,974
867
867
867
241
–
2034
1,100
29
121
3,020
1,170
286
1,170
1,547
–
2035
1,100
–
121
3,594
1,934
740
1,934
897
–
2036
1,100
–
121
1,676
2,576
604
1,033
–
–
2037
1,100
–
121
1,923
2,628
–
328
–
–
2038indexation paused
1,100
–
121
2,179
2,680
–
–
–
173
2039
1,100
–
121
6,113
2,680
–
2,680
752
–
Decade
9,350
2,682
1,133
22,404
14,535
2,497
2,680
5,362
173
Contingent liabilities and balance-sheet exposures
Exposure
Size
Basis
Infrastructure bank lending guaranteed by the Crown
up to $20bn by year ten
$2bn first-loss buffer; a 1% loss rate would cost $200m over the decade
Home-energy loan book, rates-secured
$1.6bn at maturity
defaults assumed under 1%; the interest subsidy is in Ledger A
Pay equity settlements
unquantified
each published before it is signed; union estimate $6bn, disputed
Defence Capability Plan remainder
about $6bn
$5.8bn of $12bn funded in Budgets 2025–26; the rest falls on future allowances
Fuel stock on the balance sheet
about $500m
rotated, not spent; exposed to fuel price movements
Assumptions
GDP $465bn in 2030 at 2026 prices (about $430bn in 2026 grown at 2% a year), growing 2% a year real. Receipts follow the Working Group’s Table 5.2 as a share of GDP, 0.1% in the tax’s first year to 1.2% in its tenth, from a valuation day of 1 April 2031.
Cuts: no step until 2 certified years; each step sized to 90% of the 3-year average of certified receipts less the recurring cost of cuts already made; the stabilisation account must hold 1 year of the cuts’ cost before the next step; the cost of cuts made grows 2% a year with wages. The company cut is $2bn and wage indexation $1bn at 2026 prices; receipts beyond them go to further threshold rises, then debt.
Capital: the bank buffer paid in over two years; fuel stock bought over two years; the three suburbs’ Crown share by programme year from the costing model. Financing at 4.5% on capital drawn; the bank may earn its own financing back through its margin, which is not assumed.
Not modelled: household distribution by income and age (needs Treasury’s microsimulation model); compulsory KiwiSaver’s Government-contribution cost; pay equity settlements; the Defence Capability Plan remainder. Each is a gap in the register, and the profile is understated by them.
Every commitment
What changes, what it costs, who delivers, how it is judged.
Grouped by the move or answer it comes from. Operating cost is at full rollout; capital is cash once. “Depends on” is what has to be true before the money can be spent well.
Prices
Estimate
Commerce Commission power to order divestment in entrenched duopolies, where a market study shows harm and a net benefit from the remedy.
ChangesNew structural remedy in the Commerce Act; today the Commission can report but not restructure.
$20m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byMBIE, Commerce Commission
ByLegislated 2030; first market study under the new power 2031
Judged onGrocery share of the two chains under 70% by 2034, with gross margins published alongside
Commission litigation and market-study capacity. Concentration triggers the study; harm and a net-benefit finding justify an order.
Estimate
Every gentailer hedge disclosed within a day; standard products on a public exchange with market-making duties; a legislated separation power, exercised only on the first-term tests.
ChangesDisclosure and access rules in the Code; four published tests (hedge terms for independents, gentailer retail margins, forward liquidity, independents’ share) reported by the end of the first term.
$10m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance; exchange fees recover part
Judged onWholesale average under $100/MWh real by 2034; independent retailer share; hedge terms
Exchange build and Authority monitoring. Separation itself is a regulatory act with no Crown cost, and is not automatic: a wholesale-to-retail spread is not the trigger, demonstrated harm plus a net-benefit test is.
Full open banking, portable account numbers, a properly capitalised Kiwibank funded by KiwiSaver providers.
ChangesConsumer-data right extended; Kiwibank capital raised privately.
$0
Paid fromPrivate capital; no Crown injection
Delivered byMBIE, RBNZ, Kiwibank
By2031
Judged onSwitching rates; home-loan margin versus Australia
Regulatory. A Crown capital injection is explicitly not promised.
Homes
Estimate
National Infrastructure Bank seeded with $2bn, lending up to $20bn over ten years to ring-fenced vehicles against targeted rates.
ChangesA Crown-guaranteed lender for growth infrastructure, off council balance sheets. The Local Government Funding Agency lends against councils’ own balance sheets inside their debt covenants; the bank lends against the new lots, with the buffer as first loss and one standard contract.
Depends onLegislation; credit-rating treatment of the guarantee; councils and developers signing targeted-rate contracts
$0 net$2bn once
Paid fromCrown balance sheet; first-loss buffer, repaid by targeted rates
Delivered byTreasury; new Crown entity
ByEstablished 2030; first loans 2031
Judged onHomes consented 55,000 a year and completions published by 2033; council water debt refinanced
The $2bn is the buffer, not the lending pool. Operating costs are benchmarked in the infrastructure line below.
Bank operations, standard designs for growth infrastructure, repeat procurement, published unit-cost comparisons.
ChangesThe delivery side of the bank: cheaper pipes, not only cheaper finance.
$20m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance; recovered from lending margin as the book grows
Delivered byThe bank with the Infrastructure Commission
ByStandard designs and first comparison published 2031
Judged onUnit cost per lot of local water and streets, by council, against the three suburbs
LGFA ran a $26bn book on $16.6m of issuance and operating expenses in the year to June 2025. A lender doing credit work on targeted-rate vehicles and running a design and procurement programme is scaled at $20m.
Judged onHomes completed against the 1,000-home tranche; cost against the published estimate
Quantities × unit rates that are our own stated assumptions, with 15% design and 30% contingency and 3% escalation from September 2026. A transparent concept estimate; nothing in it has been tendered or surveyed, so it is an estimate, not a costing.
Health
Estimate
GP teams funded to see you within seven days, first 40 areas in year one.
ChangesCapitation topped up by access-and-continuity contracts for multidisciplinary teams; risk-adjusted, with urgent cases seen sooner than seven days.
$350m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byHealth NZ, PHOs
By40 areas 2030; national 2033
Judged onAdults unable to get a timely appointment: 25.5% to 12% by 2033; continuity of care; cost barrier reported alongside
No published unit cost yet for a seven-day team contract. Ours funds capacity rather than price, and keeps every existing subsidy.
Student loans written off for doctors and nurses after five years in publicly funded care, trialled for two years against targeted retention payments.
ChangesNew retention scheme; the trial decides which instrument continues.
$100m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byIRD, Health NZ
ByOpen to graduates from 2030; first write-offs 2035
Judged onAdditional clinical years retained per dollar; NZ-graduate ten-year retention (73% now) and overseas-trained retention
At expected uptake. Sensitive to the average balance and to how many would have stayed anyway; the deadweight share is unknown, which is why it is trialled rather than assumed.
Judged onMW consented and commissioned; winter security margin; wholesale price
Consenting and planning capacity. Generation is private capital. The LNG import facility and Huntly arrangements are in the Government’s programme and are not counted here.
No new cost
Exported household power paid what it is worth at the time and place supplied, binding on every retailer.
ChangesThe Authority’s July 2026 time-varying export rules extended from large retailers to all, with rates published side by side.
$0
Paid fromNone
Delivered byElectricity Authority
By2030
Judged onPeak-time export rebates paid; share of solar households on a time-varying plan
Rates-repaid finance for solar, hot-water storage, insulation or a battery where an independent assessment shows the full cost pays back.
ChangesA Crown-backed facility on the model all three big parties now back; no grants.
Depends onCouncils opting in; loan security through rates
$40m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance for the interest subsidy, assessments, defaults and administration; lending is balance sheet
Delivered byLGFA-style facility with councils; EECA for assessments
ByFacility open 2030
Judged onLoans written; measured bill savings against assessment; default rate
Loan-book model: about $107m of new lending a year (80,000 homes over 15 years at about $20,000, National’s scale) reaches a $430m book by year four and $1.6bn at maturity. A two-point interest subsidy costs about $9m a year at year four and $32m at maturity; assessments at about $500 a home are $3m; administration and defaults on rates-secured loans under 1% take it to about $40m at maturity. The line is set at the mature figure, so early years are over-provided and the surplus is not spent elsewhere.
Plug-in solar kits and community batteries for renters and people who cannot borrow.
ChangesRequires the 2012 WorkSafe prohibition on plug-connected inverters to be lifted; the Ministry for Regulation recommended this on 30 July 2026 with a 9–12 month timeframe.
Depends onPlug-in solar is illegal today. If legalisation slips, renters get insulation and hot-water timers through the same facility instead.
not sized
Paid fromInside the home-energy line until sized
Delivered byMBIE, WorkSafe, lines companies
ByAfter legalisation; fallback from 2030
Judged onKits installed; renter bills measured before and after
Not sized. A community battery needs a stated mechanism, a tariff credit on the renter’s own bill, for the saving to reach renters; we have not designed that yet.
Capital gains tax on realised gains at income-tax rates; family home and KiwiSaver excluded.
ChangesReplaces the bright-line test.
$0 net
Paid fromRevenue: the Tax Working Group’s 2019 projection for a comparable design was $0.4bn in year one rising to $5.9bn by year ten, 1.2% of GDP long run
Delivered byIRD
ByLegislated 2030; valuation day 1 April 2031; first receipts 2031/32
Judged onReceipts certified annually by the fiscal council against the projection
The Working Group called its estimates “preliminary and indicative” and warned that revenue “will also be volatile”, so governments should not lock in permanent commitments on temporary peaks. The rule below is written for that.
Company tax to 25% and wage-indexed thresholds, staged behind certified receipts by rule: no cut until two certified years; each step sized to 90% of the three-year average of receipts less the recurring cost of cuts already made; a stabilisation account holding a year of the cuts’ cost before any further step; indexation pauses if the account would run dry.
ChangesA statutory staging rule with a buffer, replacing “neutral by law”.
$0 net
Paid fromCGT receipts only; the account absorbs shortfalls; the profile and a downside case are in the fiscal section
Delivered byTreasury, IRD, fiscal council
ByFirst step 2033 on the projected path; full company cut 2036
Judged onCumulative recurring cuts never exceed the sustainable line; account balance published; years of paused indexation
Full company cut about $2bn a year and indexation about $1bn, growing; both arrive only as receipts allow. If the CGT under-delivers, the cuts are smaller and later, not the deficit larger. Cuts already made are carried by the account and, if it empties, by pausing indexation; the company rate is not reversed.
KiwiSaver compulsory from the first Budget, contributions rising to 5% plus 5% within three years.
ChangesAuto-enrolment without opt-out; new members attract the Government contribution.
not sized
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byIRD
By2030
Judged onCoverage; balances versus Australia
Every new member is eligible for the Government contribution of up to $260 a year, so the cost is $260 times the number of working adults not now contributing, a number we have not yet pinned down. Not in any ledger line; this is the largest open gap.
Gap
A firm-growth programme: close the $5m–$50m growth-capital gap, a technology-adoption programme judged on measured productivity, and one commercialisation pipeline for procurement, research and talent.
ChangesNot designed yet. Three first-term commitments with no money booked until each has a design, a cost and a measure.
Depends onCompulsory KiwiSaver and the tax switch, which move the capital first
not sized
Paid fromNothing booked; any allocation would come from the operating allowance or be reprioritised from existing science and enterprise spending
ByDesigns published 2031; funded from the 2032 Budget if the tests are met
Judged onAdditional capital raised by mid-sized firms; measured productivity change in participating firms; export revenue per firm
The scorecard’s 1.5% productivity target is a target, not an estimate of what the six moves deliver. This entry is the acknowledged hole between removing constraints and growth actually arriving.
Independent fiscal council certifies receipts, runs the staging rule and evaluates programmes.
ChangesNew statutory body.
$20m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byParliament
By2030
Judged onAnnual certification and downside case published
Scaled from the Australian Parliamentary Budget Office, plus an evaluation function.
Kids
Estimate
Small-group tutoring in school hours for every child a year behind: 40,000 places a year, groups of four or fewer, three or more sessions a week, trained tutors.
ChangesNew programme, specified to match the programmes in the evidence base.
$120m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byMinistry of Education, schools
ByFirst 10,000 places 2030; full scale 2032
Judged onShare of eight-year-olds reading at curriculum level; termly assessment gains; PISA maths 500 by the 2034 cycle
40,000 × about $3,000 a place. The $3,000 is our assumption from overseas high-dosage programmes; no New Zealand unit cost exists yet, so this is an estimate, not a costing. The pooled effect in the meta-analysis is about 0.29 standard deviations for programmes of this shape.
Judged onCompletion rate; employment six months after
No new cost
Cross-party accord on structured literacy and maths; no NCEA-replacement restructure until the first cohort is through.
ChangesPolitical commitment, no new programme.
$0
Paid fromNone
Delivered byParliament
BySought before 2029; legislated 2030 if needed
Judged onReforms still in place in 2035, and evaluated like everything else
Immigration
Gap
A published three-year capacity plan covering every migration flow; a forward-looking residence band set from it; onshore transitions not counted as arrivals; construction and health pathways open whatever the band; single-employer visas ended; Labour Inspectorate funded.
ChangesPlanning framework replaces ad hoc settings; enforcement capacity.
Super age rises two months a year from 2036 to 67 by 2047.
ChangesLegislated timetable.
$0
Paid fromSaves money from 2036; nothing this decade
Delivered byMSD
ByLegislated 2030; first change 2036
Judged onSuper cost as a share of GDP
A saving, not a cost, and not booked: nothing in Ledger A relies on it.
Crime
Estimate
About twenty more District Court judges with registry staff and courtrooms.
ChangesJudicial complement raised; case-flow targets published quarterly.
Depends onCourtroom capacity in the busiest districts
$30m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byMinistry of Justice, Chief District Court Judge
ByAppointments 2030–31
Judged onMedian days from charge to disposal; backlog
Our working figure is about $1.5m a judge a year including salary, staff and court running costs.
Estimate
Visible policing where offending concentrates, with an independent audit of who gets stopped.
ChangesDeployment rule plus audit.
$20m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byPolice, IPCA
By2030
Judged onVictimisation rate (NZCVS) in target areas
Estimate
Every treatment and rehabilitation programme, and the military academies, evaluated on reoffending.
ChangesEvaluation budget; programmes that fail close.
$10m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byCorrections, fiscal council
ByFirst evaluations 2031
Judged onReoffending within two years
Climate
Estimate
On-farm methane measurement and co-funded trials; national adaptation cost-sharing rule.
ChangesTrials funded now; a pre-announced backstop from the second term.
$100m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byMPI, MfE
ByTrials 2030; rule 2031
Judged onVerified on-farm emissions; new building in known flood paths
$60m trials and measurement, $40m adaptation. Unit costs not published.
Families
Estimate
Simpler access to existing childcare help; new places where there are none.
ChangesAdministrative simplification plus targeted places.
$60m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byMinistry of Education, MSD
By2031
Judged onPlaces in areas with none; take-up
Estimate
Pilot smoothing benefit abatement; effective marginal tax rates published.
ChangesPilot in selected regions.
$25m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byMSD, IRD
By2030
Judged onHours worked by participants
Estimate
Targeted insulation and disability access.
ChangesExisting schemes topped up.
$15m a year
Paid fromOperating allowance
Delivered byEECA, MSD
By2030
Judged onHomes treated
Pay equity
Gap
Claims process restored; Treasury publishes the fiscal impact of each settlement before it is signed.
ChangesRepeals the 2025 changes; adds a disclosure rule.
not sized
Paid fromSettlements fall on agency baselines and future allowances
Delivered byMBIE, Treasury
ByLegislated 2030
Judged onClaims resolved; published cost of each
The union estimate of $6bn and Treasury’s objection are both published. No settlement is booked here; each is published before it is signed.
Defence
Benchmark
Onshore fuel reserve extended from nine days of diesel to about a month, or split with petrol and jet.
ChangesAdds to the Marsden Point diesel reserve opened July 2026.
Depends onTank capacity: Marsden Point’s spare tanks were just recommissioned, and petrol and jet need their own
$40m a year$500m once
Paid fromOperating allowance for holding costs; stock bought on the Crown balance sheet and rotated
Delivered byMBIE
ByFirst tranche 2030
Judged onDays of onshore cover by fuel
93 million litres costs $1.2m a month to hold, so $40m holds about 280 million litres more, if that rate scales. Buying the stock is about $500m once at the August 2026 importer cost of $1.845 a litre. The nine days is the strategic reserve only; commercial stocks are separate.
ChangesA commitment to future Budgets, not a new programme.
Depends onCabinet business cases for each project
$0 netcapital not sized
Paid fromFuture operating and capital allowances
Delivered byNZDF, Ministry of Defence
ByPer the plan
Judged onDeployable, maintained equipment against the plan
The plan is $12bn over four years. Budgets 2025 and 2026 have funded $5.8bn of new investment so far, subject to business cases. The remaining roughly $6bn is an intention that later Budgets must fund; it is not costless and it is not in Ledger A.
Every agency publishes delivery against funding; restructures need a published business case; in-house capability rebuilt where whole-life cost is lower.
ChangesReporting rule; contracting test.
$0
Paid fromWithin baselines
Delivered byPublic Service Commission
By2030
Judged onConsultant and contractor spend; delivery against plan
Savings from lower contracting are not booked.
Electoral
No new cost
Four-year term; MMP kept with a 4% threshold and no coat-tail rule.
ChangesElectoral Act amendments; a term change needs a referendum or 75% of the House.
$0
Paid fromNone
Delivered byParliament
BySought before 2029; otherwise in the first term for the 2032 election
Judged onPassed
Donations
No new cost
Every donation over $1,000 disclosed within a week; no anonymous or foreign donations.
ChangesElectoral Act amendments; applied to us first.
$0
Paid fromNone
Delivered byElectoral Commission
ByApplied to ourselves now; legislated 2030
Judged onDisclosures within seven days
Corrections log
21 things reviewers found. 2 we declined, and why.
Seven review rounds on 9 and 10 September 2026 by independent, unpaid reviewers who are not named because they did not ask to be. Every finding that changed the site is here with the date; so are the ones we did not take. A claim that fails its source is corrected, not defended.
correctedHealth move, problem statementReview 6
Was“Four in ten New Zealand-trained doctors leave for Australia within a decade”, cited to a journal paper that studies internationally qualified nurses.
NowMedical Council workforce survey 2024, Table 24: 73% of New Zealand graduates are still practising here ten years after registration (82% for the latest cohort with ten years’ data); three in four overseas-trained doctors have left within ten years. The claim now reads “one in four”.
correctedWork move and diagnosisReview 6
Was“Capital per worker about half Australia’s”, cited to a Treasury speech from December 2005.
NowIMF Selected Issues Paper SIP/2025/075: capital stock per hour worked was half Australia’s by 2019. The number stands; the source did not.
correctedHealth moveEditorial audit prompted by Review 6
Was“Over 10,000 New Zealand nurses registered to work in Australia in 2024”, no source.
NowRemoved.
redesignedTax switchReview 6 and Review 7
Was“Each year’s cut is set to the previous year’s certified receipts. Neutral over the decade by law.” Permanent cuts sized to one year’s volatile receipts, with no answer for a downturn.
NowA staging rule: no cut until two certified years; each step sized to 90% of the three-year average less cuts already made; a stabilisation account holding a year of the cuts before any further step; indexation paused if it would run dry. Modelled over ten years with two downside cases; about 58% of the decade’s receipts return as cuts by 2039, the rest is buffer and debt reduction.
redesignedPrices move, electricityReview 6
WasAutomatic separation of generation and retail “if the gap between wholesale and retail has not closed by 2029”. A raw spread proves nothing: about 40% of a bill is generation and 35% networks.
NowDisclosure of every hedge within a day, standard products on an exchange, and a legislated separation power exercised only if four published harm tests are failed and separation passes a net-benefit test.
redesignedPower move and data-centre answerReview 6
Was“Bring your own power”: a load over 50MW must contract firmed generation equal to its peak. Self-sufficiency as the test.
Now“Pay your own way”: additional firmed supply, or demand it can shed at peak and in a dry year, assessed together on location, timing, firming and network cost.
redesignedImmigration answerReview 6
WasA residence band set by formula from the three-year average of homes completed; residence approvals treated as arrivals.
NowA forward-looking three-year capacity plan across every migration flow; onshore residence transitions not counted as arrivals; construction and health pathways open whatever the band.
correctedRegisterReview 7
WasGrowth suburbs and tutoring labelled “costed”: quantity × “published unit rates”. The rates are our own stated assumptions.
NowBoth reclassified as estimates. Nothing on the site yet meets the definition of costed (a unit cost from a published contract, tender or price), and the register says so.
correctedRegister, home energyReview 7
Was$30m line while the entry’s own note put the interest subsidy alone at $32m at a mature loan book.
NowA loan-book model: $107m of new lending a year, $9m subsidy at year four, about $40m all-in at maturity. Line set at the mature figure.
correctedRegister, fuel reserveReview 5 and Review 7
Was$40m holding cost presented as the cost of the reserve.
NowHolding cost $40m a year, stock purchase about $500m once at the August 2026 importer cost, financing about $20m a year, new tanks an open item, commercial stocks noted as separate.
correctedWhole siteReview 6
WasDelivery dates of 2027–28 for a platform built for the 2029 election.
NowRebased to a first Budget in May 2030. Scorecard targets moved out three years; growth-suburb programme 2030–34, which lifts the Crown share from $167m to $182m with escalation.
correctedRegisterReview 7
WasSix “gap” rows, while estimates and benchmarks carried unsized items inside them (bank guarantee calls, fuel financing, courtroom capital).
NowOpen items listed inside each entry and counted separately from gap rows.
redesignedHealth moveReview 6
WasLoan write-off presented as the retention instrument.
NowTrialled for two years against targeted retention payments and supervision support; judged on additional clinical years retained per dollar; eligibility is publicly funded care, not public employment. Cost barrier (14.9%) reported beside the time barrier (25.5%).
redesignedHomes moveReview 6
WasThe bank described without saying what it adds to the Local Government Funding Agency, and with no delivery-cost programme.
NowLends to ring-fenced vehicles against targeted rates, off council balance sheets, with a standard contract; plus standard designs, repeat procurement and published unit-cost comparisons. Bank operating costs benchmarked on LGFA ($16.6m for a $26bn book).
correctedKids moveReview 6
WasTutoring cited to the 2020 working paper with no programme specification.
NowCited to the published meta-analysis (pooled effect about 0.29 standard deviations); the funded programme specified to match the effective ones: groups of four or fewer, three or more sessions a week, trained tutors, in school hours. The $3,000 unit cost stated as our assumption.
redesignedStraight answersReview 6
WasNo account of how firms become more productive; the 1.5% target read as a forecast.
NowA new answer states the gap plainly, three first-term design commitments with no money booked, and a register entry marked as a gap. The scorecard says the target is not an estimate of what the moves deliver.
declinedTax switchReview 6
WasSuggestion to compare complete packages including a land value tax with deferral, before choosing a gains tax.
NowNot adopted. The Work move explains why a realisation-based gains tax is the version that can be legislated and what the land-tax alternative costs cash-poor owners; the family-home distortion the Working Group flagged is now acknowledged in the trade-off. We would publish the comparison if a fiscal council asked for it.
declinedDesignReview 5
WasSuggestion that seven photographs would make the site more convincing.
NowNot adopted for now. Imagery without an evidence chain does not change the argument; the sunrise identity and the charts carry the design until there is something true to photograph.
correctedHero chart captionReview 4
Was“What a year of work buys, per person”, implying GDP per person is take-home pay.
Now“What each person produces in a year”, with the caption stating it is output per resident at purchasing-power parity, not pay.
correctedHeroReview 1
WasA gross departures figure (63,900) under a header that said “net”.
NowNet loss of New Zealand citizens, 37,700, year to June 2026.
correctedHomes moveReview 2
WasNew homes consented “34,000”.
Now40,908 in the year to July 2026 (Stats NZ).
correctedMoneyReview 3
WasTax Working Group revenue quoted as “about $8bn”.
Now$0.4bn in year one rising to $5.9bn by year ten, Table 5.2, described by the Group as preliminary and indicative.
correctedMoneyReview 3
WasCrown capital for the three suburbs stated as $115m.
NowRecomputed from the model: $167m (now $182m after the date rebase).
The register is maintained with the platform: a change to a promise changes this table, and the ledger and the ten-year profile follow. It does not include the growth suburbs’ council and developer shares, which are in the costing model, and it does not yet include a household distribution of the tax switch, which is listed as an open item.